The Real Progressive Conservatives

Who are the grassroots Progressive Conservatives? A great deal of effort has gone into rebuilding the Progressive Conservative Party over the past several months. Meetings have been held in all 87 ridings in an effort to hear the voices of our ’grassroots’ supporters. For the most part we have heard from people who have held prominent roles in Progressive Conservative Constituency Associations. I am uncertain that we have sufficiently reached the disenfranchised Progressive Conservative voter. I do not make this assertion in order to point a finger at anyone. The party has worked mightily to reach out and to listen. However, it is my sense that the disenfranchised voices have not been quick to make themselves heard in the public forums designed for that purpose in spite of the earnestness of the party's desire to reach out.

The Grassroots Includes Two Groups of Disenfranchised Voters

So who are these disenfranchised voters? In the current race to become the leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party, Jason Kenney's campaign has been reaching out predominantly to people who have moved their support over to the Wildrose Party. He has provided some data to support this. Those who disagree with him appear to be relying more on intuition than data. The first major wave of discontent with the PC Party appeared in the 2012 general election where, in spite of the near collapse of the Liberal Party, the PC Party lost 10% of its share of the popular vote.  Even so, it did retain a majority of the seats in the legislature. That was the election where the Wildrose Party came seemingly out of nowhere to become the official opposition. This is the election that Kenney seeks to undo.  

The 2016 election was a different matter altogether. Wildrose retained ⅔ of its popular vote while the NDP added more than 30% to its previous 10% in popular support; almost all at the expense of the the PC Party. Through these two elections the two flanks of the Progressive Conservative Party were substantially eroded. We now have two large and disparate groups of disenfranchised PCs. The assumption appears to be that we will only be realistically able to regain one of them; or at least that one of them should be the preeminent target. The question we need to answer is, “Which general election result do we want to return to; 2008 (or earlier) or 2012?”

To Be or Not To Be Centrist

Who are the real Progressive Conservatives? Or in other words, which disenfranchised group comprises the real PCs; the real grassroots?  It is worth noting that the PC Party has only been the party in the middle (centrist) for the previous two general elections when the Wildrose took over ownership of the right end of the political spectrum. In its heyday the PC party received over 60% of the popular vote with the only significant opposition coming from the left.  In truth, the PC party defied the political spectrum altogether while those on the left embraced their “left-ness.” The problems began when in 2012 when we began to think of ourselves as ‘centrist’ at the behest of the new party on the right.  Of course all of this fails to take into account that there may be a new generation of voters which may or may not follow the patterns of their forefathers and foremothers.  Nevertheless, it can be said that at the peak of its success, the Progressive Conservative Party was not centrist. In terms of the political spectrum, which it previously attempted to avoid at all costs, it could best be described as “not left.”

Should we be centrist? The current slogan around the the party is that we are “Socially Progressive” and “Fiscally Conservative.” This is what centrist has come to mean.   Socially we are like the NDP and fiscally we are like Wildrose. To some, myself included, this is disconcerting.  Socially, we have not been like the NDP.  The basic foundation of society and of social thought in the life of the PC Party has been the family.  We are the defenders of the rights of parents and families.  To follow the NDP will mean the continued focus on individual rights, often at the expense of parents and families. The NDP have portrayed families as the bad guys in the lives of young people struggling with their sexuality and as such they work to curtail the rights and privileges of parents. The real PCs uphold the rights of parents because we know that in a vast majority of cases no one loves you more than your parents and nothing is stronger than a family. Our party was built on that version of being socially progressive. But this is not the clear message of those who would say we are centrist. The best versions of ourselves have not been centrist.  In our prime we were the party that did not fit neatly anywhere on the political spectrum. Should we not aspire to be that party once again?

The Shifting Votes in Four Quadrants

Look at this chart showing a history of the popular vote in Alberta General Elections since 1971. What do you see? Where are the trend-lines? Where are the outliers?


I built this chart to represent, as faithfully as I could, the Alberta provincial political spectrum with the Communist Party on the left and fringe right-of-centre parties on the right. Independents and 'others' are on the right which does skew the results a little (particularly in 1982 when independent candidates scored over 3% of the popular vote). The order of the parties from left to right is admittedly a little presumptuous. The big players include the NDP in green, the Liberals in purple, the Progressive Conservatives in pink, Social Credit in brown, and Wildrose (Alliance) in a smoky blue colour.

I'd like us to try to understand this chart as four distinct quadrants. 0 - 25% is the traditional territory of the NDP and fringe leftist parties.  The second quadrant, from 25 - 50% is the traditional territory of the Liberal party and perhaps the Alberta Party. The third quadrant, from 50 - 75% is owned by the Progressive Conservative Party and the quadrant from 75 - 100 on the right of the chart has been shared by the Wildrose Party, the Social Credit Party, the Progressive Conservative Party and a whole host of fringe right-of-centre parties.

The first thing this chart reinforces is what a surprise the NDP result in 2016 was. This is the only time they have received support in the 2nd quadrant (between 25 and 50 percent) Will this result prove to be an outlier once another 45 years have passed? I sure hope so! I think even the NDP is uncomfortable with the compromises on their principles that were necessary to acquire these votes.

If we compare 2016 to 1989, we will see some similarities when we look at the total of combined centre-and-left popular vote. From 1989 to 2012 there has been a trend of increased support for parties to the right of the PCs. These are the votes Kenney wants to combine with the Progressive Conservative votes in a new party. Is that the right strategy?

With the exception of 1971 and 2012 the PC party has commanded the support of the 3rd quadrant (between 50 and 75 percent). The question the party is pondering now is whether to target the 2nd or the 4th quadrant in order to secure an electoral victory in 2019. Jason Kenney appears to see the 4th quadrant as a reliable voter block not subject to waver much, and convicted by principles. 

By comparison the 2nd quadrant is scary territory. It had been shared almost exclusively by the PCs and Liberals until 2012 when under Allison Redford, the PC party made a decisive shift to the left to claim the entire block of votes.   In 2016 under Jim Prentice the party learned quickly that no-one in Alberta can own this 2nd quadrant for long.  It appears very uncertain whether the NDP can hold on to this block of votes. The Liberals, the Alberta Party, and many PCs will be eager to win these voters.  Leadership candidate Stephen Khan has taken the most direct aim at this group indicating that this is where the growing group of millennials will park their votes. Does this amount to forward thinking or rolling the dice?

It seems clear to me that the strategy most likely to be successful in 2019 is for a united conservative party to focus on the 3rd and 4th quadrants while recognizing that we may be sharing the block of voters in the 2nd quadrant with the NDP, the Liberals, and Alberta Party.  The 3rd and 4th quadrants are our bread and butter.  The 2nd quadrant is gravy.  And yet, three of the four leadership candidates have targeted this quadrant as their first priority.  

Socially and Fiscally Progressive and Conservative

But what about principles? With apologies to those who contend that being socially progressive implies that we target the 2nd quadrant, the principled votes are not found there. The Liberal Party is comfortable in that quadrant because it is the party that believes nothing. More correctly, the Liberal party has beliefs that traditionally migrate and meander in search of votes wherever they can be found. There are principled socialist voters in the first quadrant who belong with the NDP. Alberta is a province, at least traditionally, where half of people (3rd and 4th quadrants) are at once fiscally and socially progressive and conservative. Our principles may be complicated, but we are never-the-less a devout people which needs a party to represent us!

The moral of the story is this; We will find our best allies in the disenfranchised yet reliable and principled voters who moved to the Wildrose Party in 2012. It appears that Jason Kenney has this figured out.

It is true that Kenney's constituency is currently a hypothetical one. He seeks to build a party that represents, not just members of any existing party, but all who identify themselves as Progressive Conservative, Wildrose, and perhaps Alberta Party members. He is running to lead a party that does not exist, but should exist. Polling seems to suggest that people want this party to exist. The real grassroots PCs want this party to exist. Many, myself included, find it irksome that Kenney's campaign presumes to exert considerable muscle to make this happen. Some will be disturbed that he would work to take over one or more political parties in order to represent this constituency. It's a bold move which I have come to accept as necessary.  Frankly, I don't see another way, among the choices currently offered, to reunite the true grassroots Progressive Conservatives under one tent.