Prediction: Rona Ambrose Will Be The Alberta Premier in 2019

The Kenney Plan

If elected as the leader of the Alberta Progressive Conservative Party on March 18, Jason Kenney plans to do the following:

1. Negotiate a framework agreement with the Wildrose Party to create a new united party
2. Hold a referendum on a unity agreement.
3. Create a united party at a founding convention
4. Hold a leadership election for the new party.

Predictions

I predict that Kenney will win the leadership. Before September 2017 a framework agreement with Wildrose will be negotiated. Before 2017 is over a united party will be created.  Sometime in 2018 a leadership election will be held. The name of the new leader of that new party will be Rona Ambrose.

Don't get me wrong.  I think Jason Kenney would make a fine premier for our province, but as far as I can tell that is not the plan. The Kenney plan appears to be a plan to pave the way for Ambrose to become the Premier of Alberta in 2019. That’s right; the evidence suggests that Jason Kenney does not intend to become the premier of Alberta. His job is to do the heavy lifting, and to endure the damage to his reputation required by the effort to unite Alberta’s free enterprise parties. But at the end of the day it will be Rona Ambrose who leads her people back to the promised land.

All-Star Strategy Team

Kenny has assembled a high powered team of strategists to make the plan work. A look at his team will give clues with regard to the plan.

• Jeff Henwood: former executive assistant to Alison Redford
• Ian Todd: Partner, Maple Leaf Strategies, Government and Media Relations
• Blaise Boehmer: Principal, Revolver Strategic, Public Affairs Expert
• Alan Hallman: Government/Community Relations Specialist
• John Weissenberger: Petroleum Industry Executive

Kenney has loaded up on strategic smarts. If his goal was simply to be elected as leader of the party he would not need nearly that much help. And he would seek a different kind of help. This all-star team is not too worried about who they annoy. They are all more focused on getting the job done than collaborating with anyone or even maintaining a conciliatory tone. The team is heavy on offence and light on defense. This is a campaign team that doesn't appear to give a rat's ass about what anybody thinks.  They don't have to. This is not about selecting a premier or even a party leader. This is about creating a new party that imposes itself on two reluctant existing parties. It needs to be done, but when it is done Jason Kenney and his reputation will be spent. Once the parties are united, in the best interests of Alberta he will have to step back, open the door for Rona Ambrose, and let her finish the job. 

The team has devised an effective strategy to unite free enterprise parties in Alberta. But this is a very poor strategy to get their candidate elected as premier, unless the name of that candidate is Rona Ambrose. This team is too good to make such obvious blunders.

The campaign they have devised is one where Kenney is a willing sacrifice for the greater good. Kenney will successfully become the final leader of the Progressive Conservative Party with support predominantly from people who voted Wildrose in the last election. But he will need someone else to come in who can unite enthusiastic members of the new party with the other half of the party which will by that time be on the verge of leaving. His team has been going out of its way to tick people off. I can tell you this from experience because I am a declared Kenney supporter and they are ticking me off. They have annoyed many many people who have been devoted to rebuilding the party with their plan to dismantle it. They have ticked off people who remain devoted to the Progressive Conservative and Wildrose brands with their promise to get rid of both. They have ticked off other leadership hopefuls by turning the leadership race into a referendum on uniting with Wildrose.  And Kenney’s high-powered team of strategic experts is doing nothing to stop it. They don’t want to. These guys are too smart to think this strategy will work to get Kenney to the Premier’s office. Kenney is freely and intentionally spending all of his political capital on round one. He will not have enough available for another successful leadership race in 2018.  It appears obvious that he has no plans to run.

Kenney Team Strategy is Good for Jean and Ambrose

Rona Ambrose is not the only candidate with a shot to win the new party's leadership. Many of the supporters of the Unite Alberta initiative are also Brian Jean supporters. If the Wildrose and the Alberta PC party unite in 2017, Jean, not Kenney, becomes the instant favourite to win the leadership. The very people who Kenney is recruiting to become members of the Progressive Conservative Party are Brian Jean supporters. The end goal of the Kenney team may well be to get Jean elected as our next premier.  But he does not have as much broad appeal and widespread support as Ms. Ambrose.

If the plan of the Kenney’s team is not to get Jean elected, Ambrose is the most likely beneficiary of the plan. It all makes such perfect sense. Why would Ambrose not run for the federal leadership? Perhaps because she has a different plan in mind. Her commitment to the federal leadership party ends in May. Her stint as the interim federal party leader is the best possible audition for the Alberta premiership. People everywhere are raving about what an outstanding job she is doing.  No one will doubt she can do the job. She will be untainted by the brazenness of the present leadership campaign. All anti-woman talk resulting from the treatment of Sandra Jansen and Donna Kennedy Glans will be silenced. She may well be positioned to win one of the biggest majorities in Alberta history in 2019.  This appears to be the real plan of the the Kenney super-team.  It is a very good plan indeed!


See Also: http://pcaathoughts.blogspot.ca/2017/01/looking-forward-to-leadership-race-2.html