Looking Forward to Leadership Race #2

A Heavy News Day

January 26 was a busy day at political news desks in Alberta.  Three separate events all point to acceptance that on March 18 the most likely conclusion to the Progressive Conservative Leadership Conference is that delegates will vote for Jason Kenney and his Unite Alberta initiative.  These three stories taken together, kick off the next stage in the life of the Alberta family of conservatives. 

The most predictable of the three news events was the departure of Stephen Khan from the race. It was less than two weeks ago, while at the leadership forum in Edmonton, that I whispered to my friend sitting next to me, "Khan is planning on dropping out of the race." He looked to be the hired gun, tasked with the job of going after Kenney hard and mean, allowing Richard Starke and Byron Nelson to look distinguished and "Premier-like." Khan self-righteously cited "vitriol, anger, and division" as elements of the race he could no longer tolerate. Most observers would agree that Khan had virtually no chance of winning. If Khan is a candidate in the 2019 election, it appears he will likely not be be carrying the banner of a new conservative party.

Perhaps under-reported was the story of Richard Starke's adjusted position regarding the Wildrose Party. He now proposes that the two parties work together to form a government which will defeat the NDP in 2019. This signals a move from Starke's centrist campaign to one which addresses the traditional grassroots conservative voter. Finally,a candidate other than Jason Kenney acknowledges that voters who have supported the Wildrose Party for last 15 years are in fact part of the conservative family that our party seeks to represent. (for more on this read http://pcaathoughts.blogspot.ca/2016/12/the-real-progressive-conservatives.html) This move is likely too late to impact the results at the leadership convention in March, but it does position Dr. Starke better to be a candidate in the next leadership race.

The most publicized of the three events is the announcement by Brian Jean, that he will willingly step down as the leader of the Wildrose Party if the party membership chooses to unite with the Progressive Conservatives. Jean stressed that he wants the process to go very quickly. He wants the merger approved in June and a leadership race to commence in July. By Fall the new leader and new party will be sitting together in the legislature. So, why the big rush? Jean indicates that he is concerned about the NDP calling a snap election. It is doubtful that is the real reason. After the way Jim Prentice was punished for an early election call it is extremely unlikely the NDP would attempt anything so foolish. I contend that the real reason for the rush is Rona Ambrose.

On this same busy news day the National Post touted Rona Ambrose as the "Best Female Prime Minister We Will Never Have." As interim leader of the federal Conservative Party she is daily building up her resume. I have said to anyone who will listen that Rona Ambrose will be the next premier of Alberta. (see http://pcaathoughts.blogspot.ca/2016/12/prediction-rona-ambrose-will-be-alberta.html) Maybe Brian Jean is worried about this too. The Conservative Party of Canada will not pick a new leader until May 27. Ms. Ambrose will not be in a position to enter a provincial race until June at the earliest. The best way to beat Rona Ambrose is to beat the clock. Brian Jean is currently the favourite to win the Alberta united party leadership. His chief competition is not Jason Kenney. The race against the clock tells me that Brian Jean has already begun his race to defeat the mighty Ms. Ambrose.

January 26 was a busy news day for journalists watching the Alberta Progressive Conservative leadership race. Three separate events, all of which point to the likelihood of a Jason Kenney victory, occurred within the space of a few hours. These events demonstrate that conservatives in Alberta are looking past the Progressive Conservative Leadership Convention on March 17 and 18 to another leadership race; the race to be the first leader of a united Alberta conservative party.

The Conversation Will Now Change

With the results of Leadership Race #1, or more correctly the referendum on the merger as a foregone conclusion the topic of discussion will now turn to the nature of the Agreement with the Wildrose Party. How will we ensure one party does not dominate the merger? Will we have a new constitution based on a fresh set of principles? How fast will it go? Will there be time for Rona Ambrose to enter the race? Will anyone be excluded? (O'Neill? Nelson? Khan?) Look for this discussion to move along very quickly. Jean will want to put Wildrose's best deal on the table immediately in order to meet his timelines.

There will be a lot of talk about money? It is generally concede that the Wildrose Party is in better financial shape than the PC party. That is the primary reason why it makes sense to use their legal framework as the structure of the new party. So what happens to monies currently in PC accounts? There are many pockets with money in them including campaign accounts, constituency association accounts and accounts controlled by the board. Do we keep the party alive until after the money is spent? What if that means running some candidates as Progressive Conservatives in selected ridings? What happens to monies in candidate accounts in situations where previous candidates do not support the merger? Will there be a prenuptial agreement? There are so many questions.

The true measure of whether or not this is in fact a new party is not found in the legal framework. Rather it is in the principles, policies, and people. Will the new party start with a board that is dominated by one party or the other? Will the party be based on the principles and policies of one of the parties or will it start with a blank slate? Will its new name be one that unifies or indicates the preeminence of one of the founding parties?

There will be many interesting days ahead. Right now, in the wake of a sometimes stormy season in the life of our party during the leadership race, perhaps the most pressing question is, "Who will be the peacemakers?" "Which leader can demonstrate an authentic desire to unite Alberta?"  Stay tuned for more Progressive Conservative fun!